Analysis

Range BREAKDOWN With Oil +35% & Jobs -92k

The S&P closed below the bottom end of the balance range last week! Price is down 0.95% from Monday’s open, and we finally have the long awaited break. The icing on the cake is that Friday did ultimately give us a gap fill reversal confirming a change in tone from Monday and Tuesday’s gap down. Should… Read more »

AI Is on Fire, But The Fed Is Divided

The S&P was up 1.05% last week, rounding out a record return for the month of April up 9.9% – the best one month return since 2020! However Friday did print an inverted hammer which may start to suggest a pullback coming. Prices finally rejected the highs of the session after making two intraday attempts… Read more »

Stocks at Highs. Oil at $105. One is Wrong.

The S&P was up 0.73% last week, closing at a new all time high on Friday. Markets spent most of the week balanced to sideways, but notably closed the gap on Tuesday and supported the same level on Thursday’s liquidation break. So far bulls continue to dominate the price action with sellers unable to achieve… Read more »

Peace Talks Failed Again… (Now What)

The S&P rallied 4.48% last week, making three new record highs. Markets traded vertically, with virtually no pullbacks offered. There are many gaps that have been left behind, which mind you, do NOT have to fill. As noted last week, our job is to evaluate how good of a job bulls did producing a reversal…… Read more »

Markets LAUNCH After A Follow Through Day

The S&P rallied 3.60% last week, reclaiming all of the moving average stack as well as leaving a MASSIVE gap in its wake. This marks a notable shift in tone from the prior weeks where markets faded into lows on Thursday and Friday after a earlier week pop. The most important thing to do from… Read more »

Should We Trust This Bounce?

The S&P rallied back 2.45% on the week breaking a five week losing streak. Price could not close above the daily 200 or 20 SMA though, so still a counter trend rally in the context of a developed downtrend. Admittedly, the Thursday rally had more strength than what was expected after a gap down, partially… Read more »

Ceasefire Extension… Markets aren’t buying it

The S&P fell an additional 2.23% from the prior Friday’s low this past week, marking the fifth down week in a row. As seen in the weekly timeframe chart below, there’s just an additional 3.79% to go before we start running into the pre tariff tantrum highs for the monthly higher low thesis at 610.… Read more »

The Fed Is TRAPPED…

The S&P has continued to extend its loss under the balance range down another 2.99% last week from Monday’s open to Friday’s close. Price has now officially closed below the daily 200 SMA (green) as well. Notably, the market also overshot the prior equal low set from October and November 2025. More on this later. The… Read more »

Oil, Powell, Jensen. Who Folds First?

The S&P closed under the bottom of the balance range again, confirming a clean lower high on Tuesday under the 20 SMA. Price is now down over 5% from the all time high made on January 28th. The largest takeaway is the unfilled gap from Thursday indicating a notable character change. More on this later. The… Read more »

US Strikes Iran – /CL Fading & /ES Bouncing

The S&P closed right back down 0.27% last week, closing once again… right in the middle of the range. The lack of conviction from buyers and sellers is astounding at this point, but perhaps this week is the week we break from range. AI Was So Last Week… Over the weekend we have news of strikes on Iran as… Read more »