Analysis

The WOW Factor Is Fading…

Markets are closed Monday, May 25, in observance of Memorial Day! The S&P closed up 0.79% last week, but most importantly, having found a firm daily higher low pullback over the prior weeks low. Looking at the superimposed weekly bars (light green bars on the right) we can see an inside bar. Over 749.5 seeks… Read more »

The Rally FINALLY Gets Tested

The S&P gained an incremental 0.37% last week and printed the first weekly inverted hammer through this entire rally. (Bars on right are a weekly chart overlay.) The level to watch will be last weeks low at 732.25. If that breaks, a gentle pullback seems to be in the cards as money rotates out of… Read more »

The Cycle That Refuses To End

The S&P was up an additional 2.44% last week, closing at a new record high on Friday and leaving behind an unfilled gap from Wednesday. The lockout rally and unfilled gap is a good reminder that the higher this market goes without digesting, the uglier the pullback is likely to be. As we’ll discuss later,… Read more »

Range BREAKDOWN With Oil +35% & Jobs -92k

The S&P closed below the bottom end of the balance range last week! Price is down 0.95% from Monday’s open, and we finally have the long awaited break. The icing on the cake is that Friday did ultimately give us a gap fill reversal confirming a change in tone from Monday and Tuesday’s gap down. Should… Read more »

AI Is on Fire, But The Fed Is Divided

The S&P was up 1.05% last week, rounding out a record return for the month of April up 9.9% – the best one month return since 2020! However Friday did print an inverted hammer which may start to suggest a pullback coming. Prices finally rejected the highs of the session after making two intraday attempts… Read more »

Stocks at Highs. Oil at $105. One is Wrong.

The S&P was up 0.73% last week, closing at a new all time high on Friday. Markets spent most of the week balanced to sideways, but notably closed the gap on Tuesday and supported the same level on Thursday’s liquidation break. So far bulls continue to dominate the price action with sellers unable to achieve… Read more »

Peace Talks Failed Again… (Now What)

The S&P rallied 4.48% last week, making three new record highs. Markets traded vertically, with virtually no pullbacks offered. There are many gaps that have been left behind, which mind you, do NOT have to fill. As noted last week, our job is to evaluate how good of a job bulls did producing a reversal…… Read more »

Markets LAUNCH After A Follow Through Day

The S&P rallied 3.60% last week, reclaiming all of the moving average stack as well as leaving a MASSIVE gap in its wake. This marks a notable shift in tone from the prior weeks where markets faded into lows on Thursday and Friday after a earlier week pop. The most important thing to do from… Read more »

Should We Trust This Bounce?

The S&P rallied back 2.45% on the week breaking a five week losing streak. Price could not close above the daily 200 or 20 SMA though, so still a counter trend rally in the context of a developed downtrend. Admittedly, the Thursday rally had more strength than what was expected after a gap down, partially… Read more »

Ceasefire Extension… Markets aren’t buying it

The S&P fell an additional 2.23% from the prior Friday’s low this past week, marking the fifth down week in a row. As seen in the weekly timeframe chart below, there’s just an additional 3.79% to go before we start running into the pre tariff tantrum highs for the monthly higher low thesis at 610.… Read more »