Analysis

Peace Deal & FOMC – /ES Higher, /CL Lower

The S&P has finally achieved a peak to trough decline of 5% which typically happens about 3 times on any given year. In doing so, the market has set a lower low which changes the daily trend count to down. The biggest argument the bears have from here is to call for a lower high… Read more »

AI’s First Margin Call

The S&P had a peak to trough drawdown of about 3.25% last week, making a new all time high and yet closing near prior two week balance range lows after Friday’s rout. This is notably a character change from the market which had been finding relentless dip buyers on prior gap downs. Some are crediting… Read more »

The Peace Trade Isn’t Over… Yet

The S&P closed up 0.86% last week, making a new all time high and breaking out of a two week balance range. (weekly bars superimposed) The market on close rebalance to end the month of May caused quite a bit of noise across individual equities, however at the index level, note Friday still produced a… Read more »

The WOW Factor Is Fading…

Markets are closed Monday, May 25, in observance of Memorial Day! The S&P closed up 0.79% last week, but most importantly, having found a firm daily higher low pullback over the prior weeks low. Looking at the superimposed weekly bars (light green bars on the right) we can see an inside bar. Over 749.5 seeks… Read more »

The Rally FINALLY Gets Tested

The S&P gained an incremental 0.37% last week and printed the first weekly inverted hammer through this entire rally. (Bars on right are a weekly chart overlay.) The level to watch will be last weeks low at 732.25. If that breaks, a gentle pullback seems to be in the cards as money rotates out of… Read more »

The Cycle That Refuses To End

The S&P was up an additional 2.44% last week, closing at a new record high on Friday and leaving behind an unfilled gap from Wednesday. The lockout rally and unfilled gap is a good reminder that the higher this market goes without digesting, the uglier the pullback is likely to be. As we’ll discuss later,… Read more »

Range BREAKDOWN With Oil +35% & Jobs -92k

The S&P closed below the bottom end of the balance range last week! Price is down 0.95% from Monday’s open, and we finally have the long awaited break. The icing on the cake is that Friday did ultimately give us a gap fill reversal confirming a change in tone from Monday and Tuesday’s gap down. Should… Read more »

AI Is on Fire, But The Fed Is Divided

The S&P was up 1.05% last week, rounding out a record return for the month of April up 9.9% – the best one month return since 2020! However Friday did print an inverted hammer which may start to suggest a pullback coming. Prices finally rejected the highs of the session after making two intraday attempts… Read more »

Stocks at Highs. Oil at $105. One is Wrong.

The S&P was up 0.73% last week, closing at a new all time high on Friday. Markets spent most of the week balanced to sideways, but notably closed the gap on Tuesday and supported the same level on Thursday’s liquidation break. So far bulls continue to dominate the price action with sellers unable to achieve… Read more »

Peace Talks Failed Again… (Now What)

The S&P rallied 4.48% last week, making three new record highs. Markets traded vertically, with virtually no pullbacks offered. There are many gaps that have been left behind, which mind you, do NOT have to fill. As noted last week, our job is to evaluate how good of a job bulls did producing a reversal…… Read more »