Analysis

Iran Strikes Are Back & CPI Is Up Next

The S&P closed up 0.83% from Monday’s open, but most importantly, closed on a new higher high in the daily trend count after setting a daily higher low on Wednesday above the 50 SMA and gap level. The trend is finally back to up, and we’re trading above all key moving averages. Markets this week… Read more »

Jobs Cool, Chips Crack

The S&P closed up 1.12% from Monday’s open, marking substantial structural progress, finishing the week above the June 23rd gap. This is impressive considering that markets started to show some cracks into the end of the week, especially across AI, memory, and semiconductor names. Meta is having all sorts of issues with AI and as… Read more »

The AI Bill Comes Due – The Markets Catch 22

The S&P closed down 2.38% from the prior weekly close after suffering a gap down on Tuesday and being unable to rally back through the loss. The trend has flipped to down via the lower high and lower low that was brought in under 739.65. Price failed on Monday to breakout and sustain over the… Read more »

The Rally’s Last Test – Major AI Earnings Ahead

The S&P retraced the entire Monday gap, closing down 0.68% from Monday’s open, but technically up 0.68% from the prior week. The trend has flipped from confidently up, to more neutral with the potential for both a lower high as well as a higher low. Supporting evidence still leans mostly bullish and if buyers can… Read more »

Peace Deal & FOMC – /ES Higher, /CL Lower

The S&P has finally achieved a peak to trough decline of 5% which typically happens about 3 times on any given year. In doing so, the market has set a lower low which changes the daily trend count to down. The biggest argument the bears have from here is to call for a lower high… Read more »

AI’s First Margin Call

The S&P had a peak to trough drawdown of about 3.25% last week, making a new all time high and yet closing near prior two week balance range lows after Friday’s rout. This is notably a character change from the market which had been finding relentless dip buyers on prior gap downs. Some are crediting… Read more »

The Peace Trade Isn’t Over… Yet

The S&P closed up 0.86% last week, making a new all time high and breaking out of a two week balance range. (weekly bars superimposed) The market on close rebalance to end the month of May caused quite a bit of noise across individual equities, however at the index level, note Friday still produced a… Read more »

The WOW Factor Is Fading…

Markets are closed Monday, May 25, in observance of Memorial Day! The S&P closed up 0.79% last week, but most importantly, having found a firm daily higher low pullback over the prior weeks low. Looking at the superimposed weekly bars (light green bars on the right) we can see an inside bar. Over 749.5 seeks… Read more »

The Rally FINALLY Gets Tested

The S&P gained an incremental 0.37% last week and printed the first weekly inverted hammer through this entire rally. (Bars on right are a weekly chart overlay.) The level to watch will be last weeks low at 732.25. If that breaks, a gentle pullback seems to be in the cards as money rotates out of… Read more »

The Cycle That Refuses To End

The S&P was up an additional 2.44% last week, closing at a new record high on Friday and leaving behind an unfilled gap from Wednesday. The lockout rally and unfilled gap is a good reminder that the higher this market goes without digesting, the uglier the pullback is likely to be. As we’ll discuss later,… Read more »