Analysis

5% Yields Couldn’t Break It

The S&P closed up 0.67% from last Monday’s open to Friday’s close, but up 1.26% from Friday to Friday if to count the gap. It might seem like all we’re doing is forming a new area of balance between 774.85 and 760.25, but recall last weeks key trigger. We have a weekly break over prior bar… Read more »

Failure After Failure Is A Signal

The S&P closed up 0.35% from last Monday’s open to Friday’s close. Most importantly the market has continuously failed to accelerate lower, even with supposably bearish catalysts at hand. FOMC on Wednesday is just another example. I’ll give you the bottom line up front tonight, if the S&P can break over last weeks high, it will be… Read more »

FOMC Rate Hike Incoming – Will Markets Rally?

The S&P closed down 0.62% from last Tuesday’s open to Friday’s close. The weekly SPY chart still gives me reasons to be constructive, but the daily chart, market internals, and sector participation leave me skeptical that Friday’s CPI gap up marks the start of a sustained recovery. With FOMC on Wednesday, I’m watching whether buyers can repair… Read more »

CPI Has The Deciding Vote

Markets we’re of course closed today, but the four day week upcoming will be anything but quiet. The S&P closed up 0.37% from last Monday’s open to Friday’s close. Buyers prevented a lower high under 767.5 into the Thursday open and price gently pulled back off of the trend line for more of a digestion day on… Read more »

AI Is Moving Up The Stack

The S&P closed up 0.6% from Monday’s open to Friday’s close. The bottom of the flag has been reclaimed at 767.5 and is now a must hold level moving forward. If lost, the daily trend threatens flipping to down with Friday marking a lower high vs the all time high. As we’ll see, the supporting evidence still… Read more »

The Price Of Money Problem

The S&P closed down 1.35% from Monday's open to Friday's close. The market has shaken out the bottom end of the flag, and now the question becomes, is this the pullback that buyers needed to launch the next leg higher from the prior all time high retest? One notable thing from last week was that the downside really only… Read more »

Inflation Cools, But The Math Is Wrong

The S&P closed up 0.48% from Monday's open to Friday's close. Yeah markets made a new all time high, but considering all of the tailwinds, this looks like a totally lackluster breakout attempt. Markets got a lower and at expectation CPI inflation number, Jensen, secured another $500B in investment, and memory stocks ripped higher into the end of… Read more »

Bad News, Yet New Highs

The S&P closed up 3.18% from Monday’s open to Friday’s close. A gravity defying breakout has taken price from the middle of the weekly balance range and hardly closing over the moving average stack to new all time highs in a matter of three explosive sessions higher. Trend is undeniably up having set a brand… Read more »

The Fed Didn’t Hike… Markets Did

The S&P closed up 0.3% from Monday’s open to Friday’s close. Trend has flipped from down after setting a lower low on Wednesday, back to neutral on Friday with the reclaim of the prior gap as well as the moving average stack. While this may seem frustrating lets just remember back to the end of… Read more »

AI’s Free Pass Just Expired…

The S&P closed down 1.09% from Monday’s open to Friday’s close. Price is now in a downtrend having produced a lower low on Thursday’s gap down, which is still only partially filled. Most importantly price is failing to hold above 739.65, the Korea gap level. Price is below the key 20 and 50 simple moving… Read more »