Analysis

Tariffs on, Tariffs off. Watch The Lower High Threat

The S&P closed higher up 1.14% from Tuesday’s open, but mostly unchanged from the over head balance range. The gap down and subsequent rebound as we know was the result of “tariffs on, tariffs off” when it comes to Greenland and the EU. Though the trend is threatening a lower high, so long as price… Read more »

Tariff Decision Punted… And New Ones Added

The S&P closed mostly unchanged on the week up a mere 0.15% yet down 0.62% from the all time high that was set on Monday. Lots of effort and moving around for not much reward and progress. The trend remains up, and price is still above the breakout level, however with a lagging Nasdaq, its… Read more »

Who’s Left To Buy The ATH Breakout?

The S&P closed up 1.09% on the week and at record highs on after a positive response to the labor report which came in with mixed results. The unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4% but the non farm payroll number expected at 60k came in light at 50k jobs which we know the Fed… Read more »

New Year New Markets?

The S&P closed another shortened holiday week down just 1.25% after gapping down on Monday below the prior ATH level at 689. Not the worst thing, noting we have higher lows still in play, and a hold of the 50 SMA (blue). Price also remains above the two bear engulfer highs at 675. This is the… Read more »

Sliver… A Parabolic Top In The Making?

The S&P closed the shortened holiday week up 0.94% at a brand new record high and supporting evidence unchanged from the week prior. * January 01 – New Years Day – Markets Closed Full Day There isn’t much going on with the fundamental narrative as the holidays are in full effect. This week will be,… Read more »

Micron Sets A New Tone

The S&P closed down just 0.75% on the week after recovering from a fairly volatile range break that overshot the key 675 support zone and 50 SMA. Although an overshoot, the low from Wednesday may now act as the higher low in the trend count, keeping the daily direction up. This starts to setup a look… Read more »

A Supportive Fed & AI Skeptics…

The S&P continues to trade in a very two sided range. Friday, price rejected an opportunity to make new record highs. This sets up decent odds of testing the moving average stack and critical support over the prior engulfer highs from 10/10 and 11/20 near 675. Notice however, daily range has meaningfully expanded post FOMC. The… Read more »

How Much Fed Support Will Markets Get?

The S&P was incredibly two sided last week, yet was able to grind out a gain of roughly 1% and close just off the all time high by 0.6%. The trend has flipped back to up. So long as buyers hold a higher low over the gray shaded area, it appears the larger down trend threat… Read more »

Engulfing The Engulfer

The S&P closed out an impressive holiday week up 3.12% but most importantly, reclaiming the top of the bearish engulfer highs. Note also the break of the resistance trendline that would more classically define the downtrend. At this point, it would seem that the only thing left for bulls to do this week is set… Read more »

Nvidia… Amazing Numbers, Horrific Reaction

The S&P continues to struggle gaining bullish traction living below its 20 SMA and now 50 SMA on the daily timescale. The trend is confidently down in the short term. From peak to trough, the S&P has fallen about 5.63% which is in line with the magnitude of a garden variety pullback. On average, we… Read more »