Analysis

Inflation HOT. Growth WEAK. Doesn’t matter…

The S&P closed right back up 1.37% last week, reverting to the mid point of the trading range we’ve been in since December. Sellers couldn’t get the job done. They had the bearish open under 686, but the lower high could not stick. The failure doesn’t scream, new all time highs imminent, but the resiliency continues to caution… Read more »

Risk-Off Rotation – Defensives Still in Control

The S&P closed down 1.3% on the week, its worst since November. Hard to believe considering we’re still in the broadening formation… This is the first weekly close under 686 since the breakout attempt. Trend posture is now deteriorated, and prior support is now resistance as of Friday’s high. Two themes drove the tape this week. One was expected.… Read more »

Hyperscalers Scale Capex

It’s almost not even worth tracking % movement in this broadening range with a lack of trend… If you must know, the SPY was up a whopping 0.15% from Monday open to Friday close. The good news is just that the market held the Thursday low over the bearish engulfer highs from 10/10/2025 and 11/20/2025.… Read more »

No New Highs On Killer Earnings… Yikes

Although marked by huge volatility, the S&P closed slightly higher last week, up 0.21%. Most importantly price was able to sustain a hold Thursday above the key 686 level. Price closed up 1.04% from that level and the next major watch is for this to develop into a firm higher low over the daily 50… Read more »

Tariffs on, Tariffs off. Watch The Lower High Threat

The S&P closed higher up 1.14% from Tuesday’s open, but mostly unchanged from the over head balance range. The gap down and subsequent rebound as we know was the result of “tariffs on, tariffs off” when it comes to Greenland and the EU. Though the trend is threatening a lower high, so long as price… Read more »

Tariff Decision Punted… And New Ones Added

The S&P closed mostly unchanged on the week up a mere 0.15% yet down 0.62% from the all time high that was set on Monday. Lots of effort and moving around for not much reward and progress. The trend remains up, and price is still above the breakout level, however with a lagging Nasdaq, its… Read more »

Who’s Left To Buy The ATH Breakout?

The S&P closed up 1.09% on the week and at record highs on after a positive response to the labor report which came in with mixed results. The unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4% but the non farm payroll number expected at 60k came in light at 50k jobs which we know the Fed… Read more »

New Year New Markets?

The S&P closed another shortened holiday week down just 1.25% after gapping down on Monday below the prior ATH level at 689. Not the worst thing, noting we have higher lows still in play, and a hold of the 50 SMA (blue). Price also remains above the two bear engulfer highs at 675. This is the… Read more »

Sliver… A Parabolic Top In The Making?

The S&P closed the shortened holiday week up 0.94% at a brand new record high and supporting evidence unchanged from the week prior. * January 01 – New Years Day – Markets Closed Full Day There isn’t much going on with the fundamental narrative as the holidays are in full effect. This week will be,… Read more »

Micron Sets A New Tone

The S&P closed down just 0.75% on the week after recovering from a fairly volatile range break that overshot the key 675 support zone and 50 SMA. Although an overshoot, the low from Wednesday may now act as the higher low in the trend count, keeping the daily direction up. This starts to setup a look… Read more »