Trade Brigade Analysis
Inflation HOT. Growth WEAK. Doesn’t matter…
February 22, 2026
The S&P closed right back up 1.37% last week, reverting to the mid point of the trading range we’ve been in since December. 
Sellers couldn’t get the job done. They had the bearish open under 686, but the lower high could not stick. The failure doesn’t scream, new all time highs imminent, but the resiliency continues to caution being overly bearish ahead of an actual 676 breakdown.
And then the data came in to back it up… (kinda) Core PCE rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, above the 0.3% consensus, and double November’s reading. Q4 GDP missed, with the government shutdown cited as the primary culprit. One path: PCE cools in the next two prints falling more broadly inline with CPI and private Truflation measures, the GDP distortion washes out, and we’re back to debating 1-2 cuts by end of year. Bullish. 
The other: inflation stays sticky, growth stays soft, and the word nobody wants to say starts making it’s rounds online. Bearish. I would think there are slightly lower odds of this path currently.
Any disappointment that leads to the stock being unable to clear the $200 hurdle will likely cause a decent amount of unwind in the options market, forcing dealers to become sellers. Have a look at the options chain headed into the event. (Use Friday expiration considering the new Monday and Wednesday series will expire ahead of earnings) 
The call and put walls align quite well with the technical pattern, noting that 170 represents the neckline of the head and shoulders and 200 represents getting over the right shoulder along with the prior earnings gap high. 
Remembering that NVDA is still 7.78% of the S&P 500 weight and 8.97% of the Nasdaq 100 weight, this will be a big deal for figuring out the next market direction. We’ll be covering the earnings call live on Wednesday afternoon on YouTube stream.
Going crazy in the chop? Cut through the noise. Join the intraday squawk to trade with a plan, not emotion. Check out this recording for a taste of what each morning session is like: 07/09 Live Squawk Get Real-Time Insights
SPY – Weekly The theme of the weekly is seller failure. Note the lower wick of the bar. Sellers pushed below the prior week’s low, below the weekly 20 SMA, below 686, below the fib 38.2, into the anchored VWAP stack, below the high volume node… On every single test, they could not hold price lower into the close. The result is a solid green-bodied bar closing near the highs of the weekly range. That said, I am not reading this as a launch pad to blue sky territory. The weekly trend is still neutral. The balance range is intact. If we rotate to the top end of range, I expect a fade back toward 686 for mean reversion, not a breakout quite yet. 
SPY – Daily The weekly expected move upper bound: 703.11 – new all-time high, higher high in the trend count. Lower bound: 675.75 – roughly an equal low. Friday produced a quasi follow-through day. Volume was higher than the prior session, the move exceeded 1%, and we reclaimed the daily 20, the daily 50, and the 686 weekly pivot in a single bar. The lower high that sellers were building from Wednesday’s upper wick and Thursday’s acceptance lower failed completely. Three levels define the week:
QQQ – Daily This is still the primary reason I cannot be fully bullish on the S&P. While SPY reclaimed the weekly 20 SMA, QQQ did not. Price is clearly below the daily moving average stack as well. The key level remains 613.
SPY – Hourly If markets are going to rally, over the 689.75 double top should walk prices up towards the top of the balance range. When and if we can make it all the way there, looking for fades back to mean reversion. On the downside, losing 682.35 puts the bottom of the range in play, and note that this continues the sequence of lower highs (red). Technically this puts price back in bear flag consolidation in the lower third of the range. If we continue to set lower highs under 682.35 (red asterisk) equal low reattempts have higher odds of breaking down through 676.5 – 674. The participant mix reads as neither strongly committed sellers nor aggressively convicted buyers. Cautiously bullish. Heavy emphasis on cautiously. 
Market Internals – NYSE Friday’s internals are quite neutral considering the market had a decent rally.
Market Profile Friday’s session saw value shift higher with price. Value is sitting above Thursday’s session and essentially unchanged from Wednesday, which signals genuine acceptance developing mid-range rather than a rejection rally. Watch the mechanical double bottom near 6845 (SPY 682.35) on any retest. If the market visits that level, a look below and fail would reinforce the bull case. A hold below would signal continued distribution and a range breakdown. 
SMH – Semiconductor ETF Basket Semiconductors up 3.06% on the week. SMH is holding the daily 20 SMA, building a higher low sequence, and looking for a Brigade Bolt™ to new highs. This is the only risk-on chart in the market that looks good right now and of course… NVDA can make or break this chart. If you want the full take, including all of the nuance of breadth, risk appetite and much, much more, check out the weekend episode here: 
PPI inflation data on Friday… Other than that some scattered Fed speak. 
Top watches: KTOS, CIFR, HD, AS, MELI, TEM, HUT, CRCL, NVDA, CRM, SNOW, IONQ, QBTS, CRWV, RKLB, MARA, DELL
ADNT – Daily / Weekly Looking for a daily higher low setup over the 20 SMA and prior breakout level / high volume close. 
BMY – Daily / Weekly Large weekly cup and handle forming. Looking for the inside weekly bars to breakout as a daily bull flag. 
ECL – Daily Bull flag on a slower mover. Has a history of grinding, not making the most linear moves. 
EVRG – Daily Daily higher low setup over the 20 SMA and prior breakout point. 
FORM – Daily Bull flag at all time highs. Clean trend behind it and adjacent theme to semiconductors. 
HIG – Daily Consolidation over the prior pivot high. Look below and fail on the range low could be the better way to get involved as a higher low vs looking for momentum. 
HON – Daily / Monthly Massive breakout of a multi year consolidation. Over the flag highs could get a leg of continuation so long as the industrials theme remains “in play.” 
KLAC – Daily Low cheat setup over the 20 SMA to get back to the all time highs. Keep in mind this should be sensitive to NVDA earnings. 
SN – Daily Relatively new IPO that is starting to flag over the prior pivot and 20 SMA. Has nice linear moves in the rear view mirror, lets see if it can go again. This was probably best bought on Friday over Thursday’s high, but still keep on radar.
Sellers couldn’t get the job done. They had the bearish open under 686, but the lower high could not stick. The failure doesn’t scream, new all time highs imminent, but the resiliency continues to caution being overly bearish ahead of an actual 676 breakdown.The Fed Threatens Rate Hikes
January’s FOMC minutes dropped Wednesday, and several participants explicitly pushed for “two-sided” rate language. As insane as it sounds, this means a potential rate increase was discussed, implying we no longer have a Fed that is committed to the direction most traders are positioned for. Below we can see the repricing with Friday’s data (red line) noticeably higher than the prior three weeks for meetings April, June, July. And then the data came in to back it up… (kinda) Core PCE rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, above the 0.3% consensus, and double November’s reading. Q4 GDP missed, with the government shutdown cited as the primary culprit. One path: PCE cools in the next two prints falling more broadly inline with CPI and private Truflation measures, the GDP distortion washes out, and we’re back to debating 1-2 cuts by end of year. Bullish. The other: inflation stays sticky, growth stays soft, and the word nobody wants to say starts making it’s rounds online. Bearish. I would think there are slightly lower odds of this path currently.Wednesday Is All That Matters
Now forget all of that, and even forget the tariff drama from Friday. Sure the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs were overruled 6-3. Sure Trump immediately went to 10% global tariffs via other authority, and ratcheted it up to 15% over the weekend. It doesn’t matter. Make room for Nvidia earnings. The stock has gone nowhere for the last seven months, keeping the broad market stuck in the mud as well. Competitors are chipping away at market share with Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium, and AMDs chiplet strategy. It’s going to take a massive surprise beat and raise from Jensen to push prices higher. The theme of Q4 earnings so far has been that even strong numbers get punished. It feels like ages ago, but remember back to MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOGL… Current expectations are for EPS of $1.52 and revenue of $65.71B. Guidance for Q1 2027 revenue sits at $71.84B currently. Any disappointment that leads to the stock being unable to clear the $200 hurdle will likely cause a decent amount of unwind in the options market, forcing dealers to become sellers. Have a look at the options chain headed into the event. (Use Friday expiration considering the new Monday and Wednesday series will expire ahead of earnings) The call and put walls align quite well with the technical pattern, noting that 170 represents the neckline of the head and shoulders and 200 represents getting over the right shoulder along with the prior earnings gap high. Remembering that NVDA is still 7.78% of the S&P 500 weight and 8.97% of the Nasdaq 100 weight, this will be a big deal for figuring out the next market direction. We’ll be covering the earnings call live on Wednesday afternoon on YouTube stream.Trade Brigade Live Squawk
Going crazy in the chop? Cut through the noise. Join the intraday squawk to trade with a plan, not emotion. Check out this recording for a taste of what each morning session is like: 07/09 Live Squawk Get Real-Time InsightsBroad Market Analysis
SPY – Weekly The theme of the weekly is seller failure. Note the lower wick of the bar. Sellers pushed below the prior week’s low, below the weekly 20 SMA, below 686, below the fib 38.2, into the anchored VWAP stack, below the high volume node… On every single test, they could not hold price lower into the close. The result is a solid green-bodied bar closing near the highs of the weekly range. That said, I am not reading this as a launch pad to blue sky territory. The weekly trend is still neutral. The balance range is intact. If we rotate to the top end of range, I expect a fade back toward 686 for mean reversion, not a breakout quite yet. SPY – Daily The weekly expected move upper bound: 703.11 – new all-time high, higher high in the trend count. Lower bound: 675.75 – roughly an equal low. Friday produced a quasi follow-through day. Volume was higher than the prior session, the move exceeded 1%, and we reclaimed the daily 20, the daily 50, and the 686 weekly pivot in a single bar. The lower high that sellers were building from Wednesday’s upper wick and Thursday’s acceptance lower failed completely. Three levels define the week:- 689.75 – Friday’s high, the bull trigger
- 686 – weekly midpoint, the line in the sand
- 682.35 – triple equal lows, the flush point
QQQ – Daily This is still the primary reason I cannot be fully bullish on the S&P. While SPY reclaimed the weekly 20 SMA, QQQ did not. Price is clearly below the daily moving average stack as well. The key level remains 613.- Hold over 613 with an Nvidia tailwind: constructive, not fighting it
- Remain below 613: three equal lows at the base become the target, and the daily 200 SMA is the next meaningful test
SPY – Hourly If markets are going to rally, over the 689.75 double top should walk prices up towards the top of the balance range. When and if we can make it all the way there, looking for fades back to mean reversion. On the downside, losing 682.35 puts the bottom of the range in play, and note that this continues the sequence of lower highs (red). Technically this puts price back in bear flag consolidation in the lower third of the range. If we continue to set lower highs under 682.35 (red asterisk) equal low reattempts have higher odds of breaking down through 676.5 – 674. The participant mix reads as neither strongly committed sellers nor aggressively convicted buyers. Cautiously bullish. Heavy emphasis on cautiously. Market Internals – NYSE Friday’s internals are quite neutral considering the market had a decent rally.- Volume flows: not impressive
- Advance-decline line: closed positive, nowhere near the 1,500+ readings you want on a conviction day
- Cumulative tick build: softer than the engulfing bar suggested it should be
Market Profile Friday’s session saw value shift higher with price. Value is sitting above Thursday’s session and essentially unchanged from Wednesday, which signals genuine acceptance developing mid-range rather than a rejection rally. Watch the mechanical double bottom near 6845 (SPY 682.35) on any retest. If the market visits that level, a look below and fail would reinforce the bull case. A hold below would signal continued distribution and a range breakdown. SMH – Semiconductor ETF Basket Semiconductors up 3.06% on the week. SMH is holding the daily 20 SMA, building a higher low sequence, and looking for a Brigade Bolt™ to new highs. This is the only risk-on chart in the market that looks good right now and of course… NVDA can make or break this chart. If you want the full take, including all of the nuance of breadth, risk appetite and much, much more, check out the weekend episode here: Economic & Earnings Calendar
PPI inflation data on Friday… Other than that some scattered Fed speak. Top watches: KTOS, CIFR, HD, AS, MELI, TEM, HUT, CRCL, NVDA, CRM, SNOW, IONQ, QBTS, CRWV, RKLB, MARA, DELLSwing Stock Scans
ADNT – Daily / Weekly Looking for a daily higher low setup over the 20 SMA and prior breakout level / high volume close. BMY – Daily / Weekly Large weekly cup and handle forming. Looking for the inside weekly bars to breakout as a daily bull flag. ECL – Daily Bull flag on a slower mover. Has a history of grinding, not making the most linear moves. EVRG – Daily Daily higher low setup over the 20 SMA and prior breakout point. FORM – Daily Bull flag at all time highs. Clean trend behind it and adjacent theme to semiconductors. HIG – Daily Consolidation over the prior pivot high. Look below and fail on the range low could be the better way to get involved as a higher low vs looking for momentum. HON – Daily / Monthly Massive breakout of a multi year consolidation. Over the flag highs could get a leg of continuation so long as the industrials theme remains “in play.” KLAC – Daily Low cheat setup over the 20 SMA to get back to the all time highs. Keep in mind this should be sensitive to NVDA earnings. SN – Daily Relatively new IPO that is starting to flag over the prior pivot and 20 SMA. Has nice linear moves in the rear view mirror, lets see if it can go again. This was probably best bought on Friday over Thursday’s high, but still keep on radar.